United States: Headline Inflation Falls to 5%

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in March following increases of 0.4% in February and 0.5% in January. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.4% in March following a 0.5% increase in February. The 12-month change in the all items index continued to decline, falling from 6.0% to 5.0%. But core inflation edged up from 5.5% to 5.6%. Headline inflation continues to slow, and base-year effects should keep bringing down the 12-month change in CPI over the coming months. Core inflation is proving sticky as the economy continues to chug along and the labour market remains strong. Given all that and while being aware of financial conditions and the state of the banking sector, the Federal Reserve should hike rates again in early May.