Six Predictions for Alberta’s Mid-Year Fiscal Update

In this preview, we make six predictions about Alberta’s upcoming fiscal year 2023–24 (FY2024) mid-year fiscal update and economic statement. The key takeaway is that Alberta’s planned surpluses look secure.

Prediction #1: We see some potential revenue upside from WTI prices, but this probably won’t show up in mid-year projections.

Prediction #2: WCS spreads will be just as important as WTI prices.

Prediction #3: Skyrocketing population growth is great for Alberta’s economy but may not have as much impact on public finances as it did in other provinces.

Prediction #4: Big downward revisions to the tax baselike the ones we’ve seen in other provinces—are possible but unlikely.

Prediction #5: Tax cuts announced during the provincial election campaign could reduce the fiscal margin for error, but probably not enough to undo planned surpluses.

Prediction #6: Bond spreads should continue to track WTI prices closely.