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Economic Viewpoint

Pre-budget Analysis: Can Quebec Really Return to a Balanced Budget by 2029–2030?

March 21, 2025
Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist

This analysis will examine what’s changed since the 2024 Update was released, and what it means for Quebec’s revenue, spending, deficits and net debt. It’s clear that economic risks have evolved, making the return to a balanced budget especially difficult under the current circumstances—especially if the province intends to maintain services in health care and education, the two largest expenditure categories. Debt servicing objectives will remain achievable over the 2032–33 horizon.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.
IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.