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Economic News

Quebec lost 18,000 jobs in March

April 5, 2024
Florence Jean-Jacobs
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • The net loss of 18,000 jobs in March pushed the unemployment rate to 5.0%, up from 4.7% in February.
  • Annual average hourly wage growth jumped to 4.6% in March. This is much higher than in February (3.3%) and higher than inflation in Quebec for the first quarter to date (3.3% in both January and February).
  • The annual growth in Quebec's working-age population reached a record high (2.1%), while employment continued to stall (graph). As a result, the employment rate fell to 61.3% in March, its lowest level since June 2022.
  • Hours worked remained relatively stable (+0.6% compared to March 2023).
  • Both full-time and part-time employment decreased (-12,600 and -5,400 respectively).

Comments

Falling employment among young people aged 15-24 accounted for nearly two-thirds of the jobs lost in March. Youth unemployment is rising across the country, particularly among students. This may partly explain the rise in average hourly wages—young people typically have lower pay, which drags the average down.

Few sectors were spared from job losses (table). For the accommodation and food services sector, February's gains were almost entirely erased in March. Wholesale and retail trade, which is sensitive to consumer sentiment, posted its second straight month of losses. The manufacturing sector followed suit. 

Implications

We expected the labour market to be affected by the economic contraction, but March's employment decline was especially pronounced. The first quarter is ending with a net loss of 16,700 jobs, after a lacklustre performance in Q4 2023 (-1,900).

Even so, Quebec's unemployment rate is the lowest among the provinces, on par with Manitoba and well below the national average (6.1%).  

This morning's employment numbers show no sign of improvement in the short term, and we expect the second quarter will be equally gloomy, in terms of Quebec's economic activity (see our most recent forecasts). Nevertheless, business and consumer confidence improved slightly in the first quarter. Slowing inflation and the prospect of mid-year interest rate cuts should lead to a more convincing labour market rebound, starting this summer. 

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