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Florence Jean-Jacobs
Principal Economist
Quebec: Modest Job Gains and Rising Unemployment in October
Highlights
- Quebec added 6,500 jobs in October. While this is rather modest growth compared to September (21,700) and August (14,700), it is the third consecutive monthly increase.
- At the same time, the number of unemployed individuals jumped by 10,000, raising the unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.7%. Quebec still has the lowest unemployment rate in the country.
- The unemployment rate for young people ages 15 to 24 is gradually recovering and dropped from 10.0% to 9.5%.
- Montreal recorded the highest unemployment rate, at 8.4%, while rates were 3% or less in the Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent, Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec regions (3-month moving averages).
- Hours worked increased 2.7% overall in Quebec, compared to October 2023 (see table).
Comments
While its may have lost some of its momentum in October, Quebec's job market is still demonstrating resilience. True, job creation isn't keeping pace with the record surge in the working-age population—a surge that shows no signs of easing up for now. But Quebec's economy has been steadily adding jobs since August, with a particular boost from the private sector. The manufacturing sector has created 25,800 net jobs in the past 6 months. The strong increase in hours worked is also a positive sign. This is on top of rather favourable outlooks for the housing sector External link., GDP External link. and consumer confidence, buoyed by the Bank of Canada rate cuts.
Implications
Before we celebrate, we need to remember we'll be facing headwinds soon. Donald Trump's election in the United States is stirring up concerns about Quebec exports in the medium term. While the president-elect's proposed tariffs will take time to implement External link., and may not take effect until late 2025, they could jeopardize the advances made by the manufacturing sector and related industries (transportation, wholesale). Business confidence indicators may also suffer, since they're already advancing more slowly than household indicators (see Desjardins Leading Index External link.).
What's more, announcements by both the federal and provincial governments to cut immigration may temper economic growth in 2025. On the other hand, they should also promote a better balance in the labour market, allowing job growth to better keep up with population growth.