Quebec: Employment Falls Slightly in February

Although the tariffs our exporters will have to contend with remain unclear, and the situation is changing by the day, we’re starting to see the impact of this uncertainty on economic data. Employment in February was fairly flat in Quebec. The province lost 3,400 jobs, but this comes on the heels of more than 100,000 net jobs added over the previous six months.

Most sectors were stable, although there was some weakness in construction, and transportation and warehousing, which in terms of employment is now at its lowest level since late 2023. The manufacturing sector is particularly threatened by the uncertainty surrounding trade with the United States and shed 3,300 jobs in February after gaining 9,700 in January. Full-time employment has been particularly weak over the past two months, losing 28,300 jobs so far in 2025.

The administrative regions that are more tilted toward the manufacturing sector saw their unemployment rates rise in February. Although unemployment rates in these regions remain below the provincial average, we’ll need to watch them closely as the tariff situation evolves.

The first negative print in seven months must be put into perspective given the robust employment growth we’ve seen over the past year. Quebec’s labour market remains on fairly firm ground as it contends with the current turmoil.

The decline in the unemployment rate is due to the lower participation rate, which is to be expected given the aging population combined with ongoing government efforts to reduce the number of non-permanent residents. That’s why, even if broad-based 25% tariffs are imposed for an extended period, we expect Quebec’s unemployment rate to stay below 8% (see our analysis External link. released earlier this week).

With certain tariffs now postponed again, we’re going back to the drawing board to review our forecasts. Our updated outlook will be released in two weeks, in the hope of getting some clarity by then.