Despite Some Volatility, the Quebec Housing Market Rebounded in 2024

Although existing home sales went down slightly in July compared to June, the residential real estate market is still abuzz with activity. Sales have picked up since 2024 began and have even surpassed the 10-year average. Although things aren’t as hectic as they were during the pandemic, sales are still exceptionally fast-paced. The cumulative annual increase from January to July 2024 was 12.2% compared to the same period last year.

Although housing inventory has expanded somewhat since the end of 2023, there still isn’t enough supply to meet demand in most cities and towns in Quebec. But sales are up in almost all regions of the province and prices keep hitting new peaks.

Most purchase offers close fairly quickly, but within a more reasonable timeframe than the near-instantaneous sales that prevailed during the pandemic. The average time between listing and close amounted to 5.2 months in Quebec, up from 4.7 months in July 2023. Inventory has improved substantially after hitting a record low during the pandemic, but selling times remain below the 10-year average.

Market conditions continue to be rather tight in most of Quebec’s census metropolitan areas (graph). It’s still a sellers’ market even though things have died down somewhat since the pandemic frenzy.

Aside from the marked volatility of the past few months, the rebound in housing starts is fairly well-entrenched. The approximately 20% decline posted for July followed a 7.7% drop in June and an astounding 52% jump in May. All things considered, 2024 has been a good year so far. The number of housing starts from January to July is 35% higher than the same period last year. Two market segments—single-family homes and purpose-built rental housing–are driving this recovery. But the situation varies significantly depending on the census metropolitan area (CMA).

Aside from a disappointingly low figure in July, housing starts in the Montreal CMA have soared almost 50% since the beginning of 2024 compared to the same period last year. It’s a similar story in the Quebec CMA, where residential construction has outpaced 2023 levels for several months now. These two regions have had the biggest impact on the provincial trend, as activity has cooled in other major urban centres (table 2).

Although existing home sales and housing starts slowed in July, the province is in the midst of a recovery that began in early 2024. Markets for new and existing home sales posted excellent results compared to last year. Market conditions remain tight, and buyers have to resign themselves to very high prices that are nevertheless still rising. In short, the housing market is back on track in Quebec, unlike other Canadian provinces such as Ontario. The rate-cut cycle that began this summer and is expected to continue in 2024 and 2025 will also boost the Quebec housing market.