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Economic News

Quebec: Employment and Unemployment Both Continued to Rise in November

December 6, 2024
Maëlle Boulais-Préseault
Economist

Highlights

  • Quebec added 22,200 jobs in November, surpassing its performance in October and in September by a narrow margin (21,700). This is the fourth monthly increase in a row.
  • However, the number of unemployed individuals also went up 11,200 in November. That’s a 15.3% increase from the year before. While Quebec still has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, it rose from 5.7% to 5.9% in November, which is its highest level since September 2021.
  • The unemployment rate for young people ages 15 to 24 ticked up to 9.8%, but it’s still below its July 2024 peak.
  • Only five regions in Quebec saw their unemployment rates climb in November. The biggest monthly increase was posted by Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where it went from 5.3% in October to 7.4%. Even so, Montreal still has the highest unemployment rate, with a three-month moving average of 8.1%.
  • See the table below for more details.

Comments

After more moderate growth in October, employment seemed to pick back up in November. But the working-age population continues to grow more swiftly than the number of jobs, driving up the number of unemployed individuals. The labour market has been doing fairly well though, with positive job creation since August.

 

Along with last week’s solid real GDP numbers, this suggests that Quebec’s economy is still on the upward trend it began in early 2024.

Implications

There’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Quebec’s economic outlooks for the months ahead. Exporters (and the many jobs they provide) may have to grapple with the tariffs being threatened by the United States, the province’s main trading partner. This will surely affect corporate confidence.

 

Future population growth is also a source of uncertainty. Quebec’s working-age population is older, on average, so a sharp drop in immigration could swiftly limit any labour market gains in the coming months.

 

But at the same time, we expect the unemployment rate to gradually decline in 2025 as growth by the labour force moderates.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.