Quebec Added 19,000 Jobs in April, Wiping Out March Declines

The biggest job gains were in health care and social services (+15,000), business services (+8,500) and wholesale and retail trade (+8,500). In contrast, employment in the goods-producing sector flatlined. For the first four months of the year, two sectors posted sharper declines compared to the same period in 2023. These were manufacturing (-12,700) and the information and culture industries (-19,300)

It's worth pointing out that the number of hours worked jumped 6.3% from last year (graph). This appears to have been mostly driven by the health care sector, but construction, professional services, and wholesale and retail trade also picked up. In addition, wage growth levelled off (annual growth of 4.4%) after climbing 4.6% in March. This is still higher than the inflation rate (3.6% in Quebec in March).

Monthly changes in employment often swing back and forth. Just one month isn't enough to establish a trend, especially if the previous month's numbers moved in the opposite direction.

We can nevertheless draw some conclusions from today's print. First, at 2.2% year-on-year, demographic growth continues to outpace employment growth (0.6%). This trend, which started last June, suggests the labour market is softening. Second, the contribution of the public sector, especially health care, is significant. It will probably take a few more months for the recovery to firm up in the private sector (see our latest forecasts). Third, the uptick in hours worked looks promising and seems to be in line with improvements in other indicators (see the Desjardins Leading Index). Finally, the unemployment rate is still relatively low, as apparently businesses would rather reduce job postings than lay off employees, especially when there's a shortage of skilled and specialized workers in many sectors.