Provincial Outlook: Ontario Is Outperforming Canada, but Oil Producers Are Still Best Positioned to Weather the Coming Storm

We’ve revised growth lower in most provinces this year, with significant reductions in Alberta and British Columbia following early‑year softness in commodity production. Meanwhile Ontario’s early‑year momentum puts its growth on track to beat the national average.

Yet the Canadian economy still hasn’t experienced the full impact of the sharp rise in interest rates. As it does, most provincial economies will see headline growth slow. But those provinces whose output is most housing‑oriented and households are most indebted will feel it most.

Decades‑high population growth continues to lift economic activity across the provinces. But it’s also masking weakness in GDP per capita, and increased reliance on temporary migration means there’s a risk that a demographic slowdown will reinforce the coming economic downturn.