Canada: The Economy Loses Steam at the End of 2022

Real GDP advanced by 0.1% in November, in line with our call. Services-producing sectors posted a 0.2% gain in the month while goods-producing sectors took a step back in November, falling 0.1%. Statistics Canada’s flash estimate for real GDP is for a flat print in December. This puts the estimate for Q4 2022 real GDP growth at 1.6% (q/q, saar), leaving growth for the year at 3.8%.

Today’s real GDP data doesn’t move us off of our call for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, albeit dependent on how the economic data progresses.