Choose your settings
Choose your language
Economic Viewpoint

New Federal Immigration Plans: What Will Be the Economic Impact?

March 26, 2024
Randall Bartlett
Senior Director of Canadian Economics

On March 21, the federal government announced a planned reduction in non-permanent residents of about 500K people by the end of 2026. This has forced us to reevaluate our Canadian economic forecast and think about how it could change if these policies are implemented in full.

The proposed changes are meant to address affordability and will likely increase labour productivity, real GDP per capita and average real earnings growth. However, by dramatically reducing the pace of population growth, real GDP and employment should advance more slowly, weighing on inflation. This solidifies our base case for rate cuts to start in June, and reinforces our outlook for more rate cuts than expected by the consensus of economists.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.