Canada: Home Sales Decline with the Bank of Canada Now on the Sidelines

It’s now been two months since the Bank of Canada last hiked interest rates, and it’s clear that Canada’s housing market has responded. The sales and price momentum that built up during the central bank’s initial holding period has obviously stalled, and we’re seeing weakness spread increasingly beyond the highest-priced cities (graph 1). This supports the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause rate hikes at its September meeting. 

Results on the supply side of the market were more mixed. As we previously noted External link. This link will open in a new window., national-level new listings came into this release having experienced their steepest-ever three-month increase outside the pandemic. That followed a period earlier this year in which tight supply contributed to sharp price gains. In August, the pace of new listings growth slowed, perhaps in response to a weaker sales environment. Still, the significant and broad-based unwinding of supply tightness in recent months points to a considerable shift in market sentiment. This suggests that many homeowners are increasingly struggling under the weight of sharply higher borrowing costs.

Although this report indicates that short-run housing demand and supply are increasingly aligning, a return to affordability isn’t imminent. Mortgage carrying costs remain elevated, and we still don’t anticipate that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates until the first quarter of 2024 at the earliest External link. This link will open in a new window.. Moreover, despite surging new listings, updated CHMC estimates External link. This link will open in a new window. published earlier this week confirm that long-run homebuilding trends are woefully insufficient to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population. In fact, Desjardins Economic Studies recently projected External link. This link will open in a new window. that even a severe, 1990s-style Ontario recession would only return housing affordability in Canada’s largest city to already stretched, late-2015 levels by the middle of this decade.

That said, some regional differences remain. More affordable Alberta cities are in the midst of the strongest population growth of any Canadian jurisdiction (graph 2). Municipalities in Wild Rose Country have yet to see as significant a slowdown in purchasing activity as Toronto, Vancouver, and nearby centres have. Going forward, we expect the sales volumes in the Prairie Provinces to increasingly feel the effects of sharply higher interest rates and a souring economic backdrop. But better affordability, record or near-record headcount gains that appear likely to persist External link. This link will open in a new window., and relatively little exposure to real estate-oriented economic sectors bode well for housing markets in the region.