Choose your settings
Choose your language
Economic Viewpoint

Will the Federal Fall Economic Statement 2024 Be More Trick than Treat?

October 29, 2024
Randall Bartlett
Senior Director of Canadian Economics

It’s that time of year again, when kids don costumes, adults give out candy and the federal government tables its Fall Economic Statement (FES).

In the FES 2024, we expect to see larger budget deficits than published in Budget 2024. The reasons include a weaker start to the fiscal forecast than expected in the spring and a deeper primary deficit projection offsetting the improved economic and lower interest rate outlook.

But the fiscal outlook could be even worse than that. From increased military spending commitments to slower planned population growth to a potential second Trump presidency, the risks to the budget balance are tilted to the downside. As such, some fiscal tricks (or higher taxes) may be in the cards if the Government of Canada chooses to hand out some new treats in the FES while keeping federal debt‑to‑GDP ratio on a sustainable path.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.