Canada: Core prices pour cold water on inflation concerns

Consumer prices fell 0.3% m/m in August, for the steepest drop since April 2020. This pushed the annual rate of inflation lower to 7.0% y/y from 7.6% in July – the second consecutive monthly slowing. Excluding food and energy, prices were 5.3% higher in August than they were a year earlier, slowing just a tick from the July pace. It was the first deceleration in core inflation since April.

With today’s below-consensus print for price growth, the big question is what’s next for the Bank of Canada. We think they’re going to hold the hawkish line in the upcoming speech by Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry, and that a 50bp rate hike in October is in the most likely scenario. What happens after that is more uncertain.