Alberta: 2022–23 Mid-Year Fiscal Update

Wild Rose Country’s Wild Ride Continues

• Alberta’s budgetary projections were much improved as expected. The province is still on track for an all-time high surplus in FY2023 after a record deficit only two years ago. Near-record surpluses are now forecast in FY2024 and FY2025 as well.
• Provincial borrowing requirements are now projected at $1.4B in FY2023, $825M in FY2024, and $3.8B in FY2025. Those are respective decreases of $2.1B, $7B, and $1.9B versus Budget 2022.
• Natural resources revenues made up almost all of the gains since Budget 2022. The government raised WTI price forecasts but kept them well below private-sector expectations with fiscal sensitivities to WTI and the WCS-WTI discount at record highs in Budget 2022.
• New policy was focused on inflation relief. The measures detailed in the update put Alberta towards the middle of the pack in terms of affordability assistance as a share of GDP.
• Alberta’s debt repayment plan is proceeding. It still intends to repay $13.4B in FY2023, with interim allocations of $2.3B and $1.4B for the same purpose in FY2024 and FY2025, respectively.
• The headline numbers show a monumental fiscal improvement as expected, but downside risks to Alberta’s outlook are not to be overlooked.